Trade War Weighs on Freight Volumes – But Is the Dip Just the Calm Before the Storm?

by TRUCKERS VA
(UNITED STATES)

Introduction

Another month, another dip in freight. If you’ve been watching the load board like a hawk and wondering why it feels like tumbleweeds are blowing across your dispatch app, you’re not imagining things.

Freight volumes dropped again in May, and all signs point to ongoing trade tensions and tariff headaches as the main culprits. Some experts are calling it a "temporary lull" caused by front-loaded inventories, while others are saying this could be the start of a longer slump.

But what does it really mean for the men and women behind the wheel?

Let’s hit the brakes and break it all down—with real talk and no sugarcoating.

What’s Driving the Freight Slowdown?

This ain’t just your regular post-holiday freight dip. There’s a bigger picture:

Tariffs are back in the news – The U.S. and China continue to volley trade restrictions. Electronics, auto parts, even clothing are back under pressure.

Inventory overload – Many retailers and manufacturers over-ordered in late 2024 to beat tariff hikes. Now they’re sitting on full warehouses and pulling back on new shipments.

Import volumes dropped – Ports are seeing lighter container traffic, especially from Asia.

Domestic freight is down, too – Less inbound freight means fewer transfers and regional loads.

So the slowdown isn’t because demand disappeared—it’s because the pipeline got clogged early, and now companies are trying to clear it out.

What Drivers Are Seeing (And Feeling)

We asked around in driver groups, listened to the CB chatter, and checked the forums. Here's what y’all are sayin’:

“Rates are garbage.” – A lot of drivers are turning down loads under $2.00/mile, even though the pickings are slim.

“Too much deadhead.” – Drivers are having to reposition farther to find halfway decent freight.

“Feels like 2019 again.” – The ghost of the pre-pandemic freight recession is haunting the lanes.

One flatbedder said it best: “If I gotta fight this hard for junk freight, I might as well park it and learn AI.” (Can’t argue with that.)

What Fleets and Brokers Are Doing

This dip isn’t just hurting O/Os and small carriers—big fleets are feelin’ the pinch too.

Large carriers are trimming capacity – Fewer trucks on the road helps balance supply with weak demand.

Brokers are tightening margins – That means drivers get squeezed harder than ever.

Some shippers are renegotiating contracts – Translation: longer lanes, lower rates.

The whole game’s getting leaner right now. Only the most efficient and strategic players are staying profitable.

But Is It All Bad News?

Not necessarily. Here’s a few bright spots:

Consumer spending is steady – Despite inflation, folks are still shopping.

Q3 retail stock-ups are coming – Back-to-school and holiday prep can pump some life into late summer.

Congress may step in on tariffs – There’s talk of easing certain tariffs to stabilize pricing and supply chains.

Plus, some industries are still moving strong freight:

Agriculture

Construction materials

HVAC and appliance replacement

So it’s not a total shutdown—it’s just tight lanes and smarter hustling.

The Bottom Line – Tighten the Straps and Ride It Out

This freight slump ain’t the end of the road—it’s just a speed bump in a long haul economy. Trade wars and inventory dumps are slowing the pace, but the freight will come back around.

But here’s the truth: you can’t ride out every slump without a backup plan.

If you’re tired of sweating load boards and playing Russian roulette with your revenue, it’s time to build your off-duty freedom while you’re still on the road.

🔥 Call to Action

Don’t wait for freight to pick back up. Start building your freedom now.

👉 Head to RetireFromTrucking.com to learn how AI tools and online income can get you off the rat race when you’re ready.
👉 For tools, tips, and real talk from the road, visit LifeAsATrucker.com