ACT Research Report: North American Trucking Rolls Into Recovery—But With Caution Lights Flashing

by TRUCKERS VA
(UNITED STATES)

ACT Research just dropped their latest forecast, and the North American trucking industry is showing signs of life—but it ain’t exactly time to rev the engines just yet. Between slow freight growth, rising costs, and some surprising twists in the used truck market, the road ahead looks… bumpy but navigable.

Let’s break it all down using Hervy’s secret sauce — plain talk, real facts, and a little grit.

Freight Demand: Starting to Climb, But Barely

You know it’s slow out there. ACT confirms that freight demand is ticking up — but it’s more like a crawl than a sprint.

Truckload volumes have inched up from the lows of 2023, but we’re still way below pre-pandemic firepower.

Seasonal boosts (like Roadcheck Week and produce hauls) gave the market a little sugar rush — but it faded just as quick.

Consumers aren’t spending like they used to, and warehouses are still sitting on bloated inventories from 2022.

Translation: Shippers aren’t in a hurry, and brokers are still playing hardball.

What’s different now? ACT notes that private fleets are stepping up to cover more freight, especially where for-hire carriers have downsized. That means competition is tighter — and some truckers are feeling squeezed off the map.

Capacity & Class 8 Production: Back to Balance?

There’s been so much talk about the “truckpocalypse” and the equipment glut. But ACT Research says we’re starting to see balance return — slowly.

Class 8 build rates are coming down to earth: around 800 trucks/day in April.

Used equipment is finally moving — buyers are picking up deals as fleets cycle their oldest trucks.

Trailer production is holding steady, especially in reefer and vocational segments.

The big problem? ACT says demand for new trucks is still “well below replacement”. That means many fleets aren’t refreshing their rigs — they’re just riding out the storm with what they’ve got.

Fleet owners: This could be your moment to buy smart in the used market while prices are still reasonable.

Spot Rates & Equipment Costs: Margins Under Pressure

Rates are stuck in the mud — but input costs are rising. Bad combo.

Flatbeds and reefers saw small rate bumps in May.

Dry vans? Flatlined. Not even seasonal gains helped there.

Tariffs on steel and aluminum are driving up truck build costs: $360/truck and $570/trailer on average.

What does this mean for drivers and carriers? Your fixed costs are rising, but your income isn’t keeping pace. That’s squeezing margins for everyone except the biggest, most efficient fleets.

If you’re running lean — good. If you’re not? Now’s the time to review every expense line, including fuel programs, maintenance cycles, and route planning.

Macro Trends: Economic Signals Are Foggy

ACT is calling this an economically mixed environment — and they’re not wrong.

Interest rates are still high. Credit is tight.

Consumer spending is soft.

Tariff policies are bouncing around like loose cargo — making it tough to price future loads or plan equipment purchases.

But here’s a bright spot: ACT has nailed its Cass Freight Index forecasts with 97% accuracy over the last two years. So if they’re saying slow growth is the name of the game… you’d be smart to listen.

Used Truck Market: Quiet Goldmine?

Now this part may surprise you...

Used Class 8 truck sales jumped 8.6% from March to April — a strong sign that fleets are still moving metal.

Even though new orders are soft, there’s clear interest in affordable, reliable pre-owned trucks — especially as maintenance tech gets better and resale value holds.

Smart fleet managers are making strategic upgrades without overextending credit. That’s the play in 2025.

Bottom Line: Steady Is the New Smart

The industry is waking up — but don’t expect fireworks.

Freight demand is showing promise, but inventory drag and tight consumer wallets are slowing recovery.

Spot rates are volatile and equipment costs are sneaking up, putting a squeeze on everyone.

ACT says growth is coming, but it’ll be measured, not massive.

Fleets that win this year will be the ones that run smart, invest wisely, and stay nimble.

For Truckers, Here’s What to Do Right Now

✅ Don’t chase volume — chase margin: Run lanes you know, skip cheap freight, and work your network.
✅ Evaluate your equipment strategy: A used truck that runs well may beat financing a new one right now.
✅ Track your numbers weekly: Know your cost per mile, maintenance costs, and revenue targets like your rig’s VIN.
✅ Stay informed on macro shifts: If interest rates drop or tariffs shift, you want to pivot fast.

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