🚛 Tender Rejection Rates Spike in Southeast: First Time Above 10% Since 2022 Intro: That Tight Market Energy is Back

by TRUCKERS VA
(UNITED STATES)

If you’ve been watching your load board like a hawk lately, you probably felt it before you read about it — something’s shifting. The Southeast tender rejection rate just jumped above 10% for the first time since 2022, and markets like Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas are starting to look real tight.

But what does that actually mean for you as a driver, fleet, or broker? Is it the start of a rebound? Or just a summer mirage?

Let’s break it down in plain English — and figure out if it’s time to haul harder or sit back and watch the show.

What the Heck is a Tender Rejection Rate?

Alright, for anyone new to this freight game, here’s a quick-and-dirty definition:

A tender rejection rate tracks how often carriers reject contract loads.

Higher rejection = carriers getting picky. They’re saying “nah, I got better offers.”

Lower rejection = carriers grabbing anything they can — usually a sign of a soft market.

So when tender rejections rise, it means carriers have better options, and shippers may need to pay more to secure trucks.

What’s Happening Right Now? The 10% Line Just Got Crossed

Here’s the headline:

In the Southeast, tender rejection rates just spiked past 10%.

That’s the first time it’s been this high since early 2022, back when the post-pandemic freight frenzy was cooling off.

Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas are especially hot — with capacity tightening and more loads getting bounced to the spot market.

This isn’t just noise — it’s a signal. And smart drivers and dispatchers are already playing it to their advantage.

What’s Causing the Spike?

A few things could be fueling this sudden rejection surge:

Peak produce season: The Southeast is buzzing with ag freight, pulling dry van and reefer capacity into those rural areas.

Fuel price stability: With diesel leveling off, some carriers are running smarter, not harder — rejecting lower-paying freight.

Carrier attrition: Thousands of small fleets shut down over the past year. Now there are fewer trucks chasing the same loads.

Retail stock-ups: Some regions are seeing early restocks ahead of Q3, especially with holiday planning happening earlier.

Put it all together and you’ve got more demand than there is capacity in certain markets.

Atlanta, Dallas, Chicago: What’s the Play?

These markets are always major players — but right now, they’re the trifecta of tightness:

Atlanta: Load-to-truck ratios are up, and contract freight is getting bumped to spot. Great time to run reefer and dry van.

Dallas: Shippers are paying up to keep committed carriers. If you’re based nearby, you’ve got leverage.

Chicago: Midwestern freight hub tightening means even regional loads are paying better.

If you’re based in or routing through these cities, now’s a good time to raise your rate floor and stop taking junk loads.

What Drivers Should Be Doing Right Now

If you’re leased on, owner-op, or dispatching for your own truck, this is what to focus on:

Negotiate better spot rates. You’ve got leverage in tight markets — don’t undersell.

Be selective. If a broker’s still offering pre-Christmas rates, walk away.

Stack backhauls smart. Southeast outbound is hot, but inbound might be soft — plan your roundtrips.

Watch DAT and SONAR daily. Market volatility means rates can shift quickly — don’t rely on last week’s averages.

And most importantly — don’t overextend. Just because rates go up for a week doesn’t mean they’ll stay there. Move smart.

Multiple Views: Is This a Comeback or a Head Fake?

Optimists say:

This is the start of a broader rebound.

More rejections = healthier spot market = better rates ahead.

Fewer carriers = more freight per truck.

Realists (or pessimists) say:

It’s a temporary blip tied to produce and summer restocking.

Shippers may still pull back hard in Q4 if the economy tightens again.

This spike could flatten by mid-July.

So which is it? Honestly, both could be true. Short-term window of opportunity — but long-term trends still depend on fuel, inflation, and consumer demand.

Bottom Line: Don’t Sleep on a Hot Market

Right now, Southeast freight is paying better and booking faster. Whether you're running a single truck or dispatching a fleet, this is the time to:

Recalibrate your rate expectations

Stay alert to lane shifts

Bank that extra profit for slower months ahead

And hey — if the freight market’s finally starting to turn… you don’t want to be the last one to adjust your strategy.

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✊ Remember — you’re not just a driver, you’re the backbone of the whole system. Make the market work for YOU.