Every week somebody asks me: "Hervy, is trucking even worth it anymore?"
Fair question. You've probably heard the horror stories — the freight recession, carriers shutting down, drivers sitting for days. And yeah, 2023 through 2025 was brutal. A lot of carriers closed their doors.
But here's what nobody's telling you: 2026 is shaping up different. And if you're thinking about getting in, the timing might be better than you think. Let me give you the straight numbers.
According to ACT Research, truckload spot rates were up more than 40% year-over-year in June 2026. Contract rates — the money company drivers actually get paid on — are running about 17% above last year, around $2.50 a mile before fuel. DAT had van contract rates hitting $3.01 a mile in July.
Here's the key part: this isn't happening because freight demand is booming. Demand is flat — the ATA's own chief economist said the broader economy is holding up but the freight economy "is not as strong." This recovery is supply-driven. Trucks are disappearing faster than freight is.
Long-distance truckload employment fell to about 496,300 drivers back in January — the lowest since 2014. Research from ATRI found that roughly 10% of trucks sat without a driver on average last year. A big reason is enforcement: crackdowns on non-domiciled CDLs, fraudulent ELDs getting pulled, new USDOT number rules. Every month, more seats go empty.
Fewer seated trucks means fewer trucks bidding against each other for the same loads. That's what pushes rates up. And it means carriers need drivers — which gives new drivers leverage they haven't had in years.
From a market standpoint: yes, the timing is genuinely good. You're walking into a market where drivers are scarce and getting scarcer. That's leverage — on pay, on home time, on the kind of freight you haul.
But — and this is the part the recruiters won't tell you — the market doesn't mean a thing if you're not compatible with the lifestyle.
You'll be gone 2 to 5 weeks at a time. Your family gets thrown into the trucker lifestyle whether they signed up or not. First-year pay is lower — that's just how it is; the real money comes after year one. And turnover at the big carriers runs 90% or higher, mostly because nobody told those drivers the truth before they signed.
Before you look at a single CDL school, answer the compatibility question first. I put together a 20-minute video that walks you through exactly that — whether trucking fits YOU, what to expect out there, the different ways to get your CDL, and what kind of money is realistic. It's called the Trucker Success Blueprint, it's $9.99, and it can save you from a $5,000 mistake.
Good market + wrong person = a miserable driver who quits in 8 months. Tough market + right person with a plan = a career.
2026 is handing you the good market. Make sure you're the right person. Do the homework first — that's what this site is for.
Stay safe out there,
Hervy